Moving On Amid the Stagflation Stalemate

The UK House of Commons was stunned when Conservative politician and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Iain Macleod spoke about stagflation before the House on 17 November 1965. Britain’s financial sector also rejected Macleod’s argument, unable to believe that inflation and economic stagnation could occur at the same time.

“We now have the worst of both worlds—not just inflation on the one hand or stagnation on the other. We have both at the same time,” he said.

The government and the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time, James Callaghan, dismissed Macleod’s view. Economic thinking in the 1960s and 1970s held that unemployment and stagnation could not possibly occur together. Macleod was thought to be deluding himself. British economists of the day believed that the economy could balance itself out as long as the government managed prices and incomes.

The problem was that economists in the 1960s and 1970s had overlooked one crucial factor: human desire. In theory, people and governments everywhere could weather a period of inflation safely and eventually achieve economic stability. There was just one condition: they had to be willing to embrace the “new normal” wholeheartedly.

By the “new normal,” I mean lowering an already elevated standard of living by cutting back on spending. Ordinary people might not find it particularly difficult to start doing this. But what about government officials and members of the British royal family? Could they lower their standard of living—for example, by going from eating three meals a day to just two?

Illustration: Srigading Temple, Lawang, Malang. 

“Go, and Don’t Come Back”

Traditional communities around the world follow customs that may seem strange at first glance to us modern people. One thing worth knowing is that they hold firmly to a principle that remains with them to this day: once someone has died, they cannot come back to life.

Communities that follow the Siberian Native Faith bury their dead on mountain peaks or deep in the forest. Some nomadic Siberian tribes even move on when one of their members dies. They leave the body far behind, signaling their willingness to let the deceased go and their desire not to have the departed come looking for them.

These people, whom we might consider primitive, seem to have understood that decomposing bodies produce fluids and bacteria that can be hazardous to health. Soil and groundwater can become contaminated if a body or burial site is not kept at a safe distance.

It is therefore reasonable that some sources describe Siberian Native Faith communities as treating burial grounds as forbidden areas. No activities are permitted there, which is why they build neither sacred sites nor places of worship in cemeteries. They certainly do not build homes there. And it turns out the reason has nothing to do with being afraid of cemetery ghosts.

Coming Out of a “Coma”

For many people, stagflation is a state of coma in the truest sense of the word. Just imagine: opportunities to earn an income keep shrinking as the cost of living shoots sky-high, with no telling when it will come back down. There is little we can do to break out of that situation. We are stuck. Only hunger and thirst can force us to keep breathing and moving.

If we think of stagflation as someone who has died, then all we can do is accept reality. Deluding ourselves into believing that the deceased will return someday is no different from pretending that our economic situation is just fine. (dswas)

How to Face the ‘Apocalypse’

The turmoil in the economic and financial sectors shows no sign of abating, while nature is baring its teeth through one disaster after another: outbreaks, earthquakes, flash floods, droughts, and fires. The picture is complete.

With so many challenges confronting humanity throughout 2026 so far, some people have begun to wonder, “Is the apocalypse really near?” Others ask, “Is this the end of the world?”

If it is, I suspect quite a few people will welcome it with joy. Yes, you read that right. We may never know who belongs to this group. It could even be someone close to us: a relative, a coworker, a neighbor, or perhaps a stranger sitting beside us on the commuter train.

Millions of people around the world can only shake their heads as they watch the antics of prominent figures, all while being bombarded with one piece of bad news after another about the state of the natural world in every corner of the globe. An acquaintance of mine explained that things have become far too dire to fix.

Even if someone were willing to try, those taking the initiative might not know where to begin. Should we start by changing the human mindset or by repairing the world around us? Both have been so badly damaged that razing everything to the ground seems like the only solution. How true is that? 

Illustration: Sumur Windu Kendedes, Polowijen, Malang

The Apocalypse goes round and round

Like many people who follow traditional belief systems, the Siberian Native Faith community does not believe in a Day of Judgment. Time keeps turning, and so does existence. Neither moves in a straight line toward a final endpoint; instead, both follow a cycle that keeps turning.

Consider the offerings they leave by rivers or in forests. For a day or two, the food or flowers still look fresh. By the next day, they begin to decay, eventually returning to the earth. However, the offering itself isn't the last one.  

Disasters and the many hardships that arise from disharmony are accepted sincerely. This does not mean they are too lazy to make an effort, or that they simply surrender to fate and are suicidal.

There was, indeed, a dark period when suicide rates rose among Siberia’s Indigenous communities. This painful time came not long after they began encountering ideas from outside their region. I see it as a kind of culture shock.

Outside influences cannot be avoided, even when people make a determined effort to isolate themselves. The only way forward, then, is to build new ‘cells’ strong enough to help them find balance amid those external influences. It is certainly not easy, especially since individuals within the community vary in their capacities.

Yet the Siberian Native Faith community sees this as the only way to face the apocalypse, understood here as an extraordinarily catastrophic event. One terrible event ends, only for another to follow, again and again. There will always be something worse than what came before. They do not demand an answer to the question, “Why does the apocalypse happen?” What they need is concrete action.

Life is ‘beautiful’

It may sound clichéd, but it’s true, isn’t it? Preparing for the End Times is necessary, because we are encouraged to be ready for all kinds of possibilities. We choose to prepare for the worst because we have hoped too often, only to be disappointed. As a result, we tend to fear the Apocalypse, the End, Doomsday, you name it.

As the saying goes, the future takes shape according to our mindset. If we allow ourselves to be ruled by fear of what lies ahead, then we shouldn’t be surprised by the world we find ourselves living in today. (dswas).

Economic Hardship Leaves No Room for Loneliness. Is That Really True?

Loneliness: being alone, with no one to love you or care about you ... I guarantee you won’t feel it if you’re willing to live in Indonesia, especially in its outskirts or rural areas, on any island or in any city.

It’s not because Indonesians are friendly and kind. No. It’s not because we enjoy helping others or neighbors who are going through hard times. Nor is it because we have a tradition of working together for the common good. Is it because we believe everyone is equal, rich or poor? Ah, probably not that either.

As the media have reported, Indonesia’s name has suddenly made headlines around the world because of forest fires in several regions, threatening the lives of people, animals, and plants in the affected areas.

That doesn’t mean areas untouched by forest fires are free of problems. If it isn’t flooding, people have to get used to scorching weather day and night, leading to drought and water shortages. They also have to contend with global stagflation, which drives up prices across the board while jobs remain scarce.

This pileup of problems, rooted in economic hardship, forces people to focus more closely on their work and on how they spend what they earn. Those who are single focus on surviving, while those with families focus on keeping their families afloat.

For most people living in these circumstances, time seems to pass too quickly. Morning is over in a flash, and night arrives before they know it, while the money they earn still isn’t enough to cover their needs. They simply have no time to feel lonely.

Illustration: Mount Arjuno view in Sumber Kalimangun, Randuagung, Malang. 

A Legacy of Sorrow

From the perspective of Indigenous Siberian beliefs, loneliness does not arise only when the need for love and affection goes unmet. For these communities, moving to a place with a milder climate and more comfortable temperatures does not automatically bring them closer to their hopes for a better, more civilized life.

Their elders carried a sense of loss when they were forced to obey bans on practicing their Indigenous rituals in their new home. They were unable to reject the new rules, not because they lacked the courage to resist, but because the people closest to them—their neighbors, relatives, and family members—had already become convinced, for a host of reasons, that their ancestral beliefs were something to leave behind.

The elders of Indigenous Siberian communities kept their homesickness firmly hidden as a way of supporting the younger generations, who hoped for a brighter future. Yet this emotional burden shaped their everyday behavior, including the way they interacted with their children and grandchildren.

This is how loneliness, that hard-to-explain melancholy, was passed down through several generations. It was more than the loss of identity that came when a community chose to be “born again” by abandoning its old beliefs.

 

Free from Loneliness

The Russian government’s recognition of Siberia’s traditional peoples was one factor that encouraged them to rebuild their sense of identity and find their way back to the ancestral wisdom they had long left behind.

Today, they no longer fear leaving offerings at the edge of a forest or beneath a tree. They no longer worry about visitors asking about offerings placed in the living room or on the dining table. Nor do they have to fear the suspicion of people who do not share their beliefs when they leave offerings in public places.

They are no longer anxious about facing any form of punishment in the afterlife, either. The offerings they present are not an act of defiance against, or a rejection of, the Creator of the universe. So why should they be afraid? (dswas). 

Staying Safe and Secure When El Niño Strikes

Literally, El Niño means ‘the little boy.’ Some might think Fernando Torres is the only footballer in history who truly earned the nickname, thanks to his remarkable ability on the pitch. It was this ability that saw him become the youngest captain of Atlético Madrid in his era, taking on the role at just 19.

When he was promoted to Atlético’s senior team, Torres was only 16. His teammates initially doubted him because of his innocent, boyish appearance. They did not think much of his name, and so they all called him ‘the little boy.’

Being underestimated did not intimidate the young Torres. He did not even leave the club where he had discovered football at the age of 11, despite Atlético Madrid’s relegation to the second division in May 2000.

That major setback was preceded by a leadership crisis within the club, which had won the La Liga and Copa del Rey double in 1996. The crisis led to the departure of top and senior players. Relegation then eroded the confidence of sponsors, leaving the club unable to buy or afford to pay high-caliber players.

This was why Torres was given the captain’s armband and the right to lead players older than himself. Financial limitations had placed him in the position of team captain, because the club could only rely on players who had come through its own football academy.

Torres’s name rose to prominence because his ability was considered above average compared with his peers at the time. He became the only Atlético academy graduate to be named FIFA Player of the Year (2008), and he finished third in the Ballon d’Or that same year.

Illustration: Full moon at Mulyoagung, Dau, Malang. 

The ‘Blessing’ of Nature’s Imbalance

Looking at Torres’s story above, it is only human to imagine that El Niño in the Pacific, which is forecast to continue into early 2027, might also eventually have its own happy ending.

As a weather phenomenon, El Niño refers to a sudden rise in sea-surface temperatures that affects weather patterns across surrounding regions. According to scientists, the rise in sea-surface temperatures itself can be caused by various factors, particularly human activities involving the use of natural resources.

The town where I have lived with my family since childhood is among the areas hit quite hard by El Niño. Not far from our home, rice fields have dried up and residents’ wells have begun to run out of water. The days feel intensely hot, and quite a few people have started falling ill.

Some of the people I met were not surprised by the situation. The exploitation of nature in our town has indeed continued to increase over the past several years. The consequences were bound to come, sooner or later. Quietly, they had already imagined what could happen to their town if the brakes on exploitation ever failed.

We see the arrival of El Niño as a reminder to be more careful in the way we treat nature, and to once again acknowledge the trees, springs, and certain places that were once regarded as sacred.

That acknowledgment takes the form of offering ritual offerings according to the customs practiced at those locations. It is an act that symbolizes humility and an apology to the natural world for the arbitrary ways in which we have treated it.

It is true that not many people think this way. Yet suddenly becoming aware of our mistakes can itself be a ‘blessing’ that may save us from greater harm in the future.

We cannot undo the consequences of a mistake in making a decision, nor can we ask the Creator to erase that mistake as though it had never happened. (dswas).

A Surefire Way to Let Go of Resentment Toward Our Ancestors

On December 26, 1991, around 30 million ethnic Russians suddenly found themselves citizens of foreign countries, just a fraction of a second after the Soviet flag was lowered forever. A political agreement had stripped them of the privileges they had enjoyed as citizens of the “motherland,” not a war or an uprising.

Around 30 million Russians were living in Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and the Baltic states when the lowering of the Soviet hammer-and-sickle flag was broadcast on television. They lived in countries that would now be known as former Soviet republics, territories that had previously been required to set aside their local identities in favor of a single official identity.

Many of the conflicts in Eastern Europe today are, to a large extent, the result of small, long-smoldering tensions between the Russian diaspora and local populations in the former Soviet republics. Local communities carry deep trauma from various state policies once imposed by the government that had supported them and has since dissolved. Meanwhile, Russian immigrants see their circumstances as the consequence of policies made by people who were supposed to protect and look after them.

The people of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and, of course, Ukraine are still struggling to rediscover identities that were once lost. At the same time, members of the Russian diaspora living in these countries are also struggling to adapt to their governments’ efforts to move beyond the Soviet shadow. Among other things, this has meant no longer using Russian as an official language.

Illustration: A kapok tree in Situs Tejosari, Singosari, Malang. 

The end is the beginning

Parents, grandparents, great-grandparents, forebears, ancestors … All these words have essentially the same literal meaning in context: people who existed or were born before us, people who, by chance, are the reason you are here today, reading my blog.

Because they were ordinary human beings just like us, we are sometimes left puzzled by the actions they took and the decisions they made. This happens because they and we lived in different eras, shaped by different challenges and circumstances.

Indigenous Siberian communities saw the end of the Soviet era as a moment to “return to factory settings,” a moment to rebuild. Knowledge passed down from their ancestors was once again studied by younger generations of Siberia, a generation that began encountering the modern world after the Soviet government built schools across Siberia during its heyday.

Without the government assistance they had routinely received from the Soviet Union from the 1950s through the 1980s, Indigenous Siberian communities experienced economic hardship that led to depression and even an increase in suicide cases.

The Russian Federation, established following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, subsequently enacted a republican law in the spring of 1992, providing the basis for the establishment of several autonomous republics. The Sakha (Yakutia) Republic was one of them. This new republic would go on to encompass several Indigenous Siberian peoples and remains home to them today.

This was the moment that became a reset point for many Indigenous Siberian communities, giving them an opportunity to rebuild the local wisdom and ancestral values they had long abandoned.

Something to hold on to

By continuing traditional practices, such as leaving offerings in forests, rivers, or along the seashore, followers of Indigenous Siberian Faith maintain their connection to their origins, to the point where their existence began.

Political and economic upheaval can certainly be a shock to them, just as it is to every ethnic group anywhere in the world. That is why we all need something to hold on to, so that we do not fall when hard shocks come our way. And if falling is unavoidable, at least we may come away with a few bruises rather than serious injuries.  (dswas)

Littering = An Unhealthy Mindset, Why?

I will not apologize if the title above sounds too harsh to you, because this is the reality.

Whether due to a lack of waste disposal facilities or an inability to pay sanitation fees, rivers, springs, and open fields are used as dumping grounds by some people. The bad news is that there are quite a lot of them.

If only the things we used every day were also made from materials that decomposed easily, waste might not be such a major problem. The landslide of garbage that caused fatalities at a landfill in Indonesia some time ago sounded surreal.

On the other hand, some people try to deal with accumulating waste by burning it. A decision that ultimately has the potential to invite fire hazards and respiratory problems.

I believe most of us already know about the waste problem and have been equipped with enough information about it. Yet the urge to get rid of the unpleasant thing called waste as quickly as possible seems to be too strong.

Some of the situations mentioned above show our tendency to seek the easiest way out, even when that method is discouraged and repeatedly condemned as harmful. So where does all that knowledge disappear when we are faced with waste that needs to disappear simply because we do not want our comfort disturbed?

Illustration: Mount Arjuna's scenic view, Dau, Malang.

A Lost Soul

By now, I think you may have a slightly better understanding of why I consider littering, or destroying waste through easy but dangerous methods, to be a mild symptom that something is not going right within us.

Insisting on doing something that contradicts what we know indicates a long-standing conflict within ourselves. An inner contradiction that we cannot resolve, yet one that manifests itself in our everyday behavior.

The medical world refers to such conditions as depression, schizophrenia, stress, anxiety, bipolar disorder, and so on. Such states of mental health are also familiar to followers of Indigenous Siberian Faith.

From their perspective, a tragic and traumatic event has taken away the sufferer's happiness forever. The sufferer is aware of what they are feeling, but the shock is so overwhelming that their soul refuses to return.

The trigger for depression itself usually begins with violations of social norms and unwritten rules, or with excessive exploitation of nature. Seeing a polluted river or a burned forest, for example, can create deep distress that gradually erodes one's sense of calm and peace.

Preparing offerings to present to one's ancestors is considered one way to overcome these negative feelings. The sufferer trains themselves to regain their spirit through the loving and sincere act of arranging the offerings.

Breaking the ‘Vicious Cycle’

If a dirty river makes us feel uncomfortable, then why—or what lies behind—the decision to throw waste into a river in the first place? When our feelings become negative because of someone else's actions carried out in public, why do we end up doing the same thing ourselves?

These are just a few of the questions that should arise in our minds before the damage spreads and its consequences grow.

As someone who has experienced mental health problems in the past, I assure you that the best medicine comes from our own determination to rise again. The winding roads and wrong turns are indeed things we must—and will—face as consequences of the mistakes we made in earlier phases of our lives. (dswas). 

Preparing for a Prolonged Dry Season and Extended Rains

“Don’t Know What You Got Till It’s Gone” by Cinderella is surely familiar to those who were teenagers in the ’80s and ’90s and whose hair is now beginning to turn gray. British rock critics at the time described this rock ballad as not really a rock song at all, but rather the slogan of a well-known soft drink brand.

Other British critics poked fun at its vocalist and songwriter, Tom Keifer, suggesting that he sang in a husky voice because he was exhausted and needed a rest.

I predict that this song will become a favorite again in the near future, accompanying our realization of the many things that have disappeared, or are about to disappear, from our lives. Things that were once present, ordinary, and unremarkable, until they are suddenly gone from our everyday lives. Water and sunlight, for example.

Some time ago, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that the El Niño phenomenon, characterized by hot and dry conditions accompanied by strong winds, would continue across much of Southeast Asia until early 2027. During the same period, the Americas are experiencing high rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.

Rain, or heat, which we normally blame for showing up uninvited while we are going about our activities, can suddenly disappear for a long period, depending on where you live. Science has succeeded in uncovering the various factors behind these conditions, but it has yet to formulate a sure-fire way to put an end to such anomalies. 

Illustration: Kapok tree amidst smog in Singosari, Malang.

Training Ourselves to Stay Alert

When a trader suffers a loss, they will do whatever they can to close the gaps in their books. Weather, however, is not as tangible as money or other physical things. Humanity’s ability to manipulate weather through its activities accounts for only 10%. The remaining 90% depends on the dynamics of nature.

The Siberian Native Faith believers have understood this for a long time. They live amid nature in a moody state, sometimes friendly and sometimes not. Yet they do not abandon the bone-chilling Siberian wilderness, because their ancestors taught them how to survive.

The offerings they prepare according to the customs of their respective belief systems are not intended as “bribes” to persuade some unseen supernatural force to help them. Nor are they meant to coax the sun into suddenly appearing and providing warmth.

To prepare an offering, the person making it sacrifices time, energy, and material resources that could otherwise be used for something else. Not to mention the pile of waste left behind once the offering has dried out or decomposed.

Isn’t it irrational to offer a cup of coffee or vodka to someone who cannot even be seen physically?

For Siberian Native Faith communities, the practice of making an offering when entering the forest to hunt, or before fishing in the waters, is an expression of humility made tangible.

Those who venture into the wilderness with humility have a better chance of returning home safely. Why? A humble person’s state of mind tends to remain steady and calm, so panic or hysteria is less likely to arise when they encounter the unexpected.

Acceptance

“What if we run out of drinking water?” “Where will we run if a flood comes?” and many similar questions may arise in our minds following the WMO’s official announcement above. I consider this perfectly natural, because no one is comfortable living with uncertainty.

This is where psychological maturity can become a source of protection for you and your family. It is a kind of “acceptance” of the conclusion that not everything in the real world will go according to our wishes. (dswas)